Will Ukraine's Party of Regions Split?
Images (left to right): Rinat Akhmetov, Party of Regions Logo, Viktor Yanukovych
Ukraine's Party of Regions (PoR), winner of the majority of votes in last year's Parliamentary election, may splinter into two smaller groups due to a growing internal divide. One faction, led by former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, wants business practices to remain opaque and maintain good relations with Russia, hoping this would lead to cheaper gas prices. The other division, headed by billionaire industrialist Rinat Akhmetov, wants to see business and legal reform that would provide greater access to Western markets and capital investment.
This split has grown wider since Akhmetov has recently partnered with pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, temporarily putting their political differences aside in an attempt to weaken current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have battled on numerous occasions since she became Prime Minister in December 2007. It is an odd relationship as they disagree on almost everything, but still need each other's support to be successful. For example, Yushchenko has submitted an amended Cabinet of Ministers law to Parliament which would allow the President to select the Prime Minister instead of a Parliamentary majority. Yushchenko needs the Tymoshenko Bloc's suppport to pass such constitutional reforms, while Tymoshenko needs Yushchenko's support to remain as Prime Minister and accomplish her agenda.
In the Party of Regions, Yanukovych is in charge and not happy about this Yushchenko-Akhmetov partnership. Yanukovych and his supporters are preparing to rally against Yushchenko, but Akhmetov is unlikely to join them. Akhmetov is the chief financial backer of PoR and would likely have more followers than Yanukovych if a split occurs, therefore saving Yushchenko. It is not clear how Yanukovych's faction would function without Akhmetov's financial support.
Yushchenko would love to see a split in the Party of Regions. His support has dwindled in the past several years, and he faces potential challenges from both Tymoshenko and Akhmetov in Ukraine's 2009 Presidential election. If PoR splits, Akhmetov would be less of a threat in the upcoming election, and Yanukovych would most likely not have enough support to win. That leaves Tymoshenko as Yushchenko's lone formidable opponent. Perhaps joining forces with Akhmetov and weakening Tymoshenko now will make it easier for him to get re-elected next year. There's never a dull moment in Ukrainian politics.
