March 2008 Archives

Today, during a press conference covering the first 100 days of the new government, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko told reporters she is ready to support President Viktor Yushchenko's bid for re-election ... under certain conditions, of course.

Tymoshenko said, “If there is a normal harmonious collaboration between the President and me at the current stage, if we work as a single team and yield result to society, without any condition, I will make that there will be a single candidate from the democratic forces. I may support Victor Andriyovych [Yushchenko]."

This is certainly a nice gesture, but is it realistic? The President and Prime Minister have butted heads about almost everything since Tymoshenko assumed office in December. Why should anyone believe things will suddenly change now? It would certainly be nice to see the democratic coalition function as a single group without internal conflicts. I guess we'll have to see how Yushchenko responds.

If an agreement can be reached, I wonder if that would change Yuri Lutsenko's plans for creating a new political party. Lutsenko may continue with his plans, since he said the new party would be created as a partner in the democratic forces, not as an alternative to the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine People's Self Defense Bloc.

After everything we have seen in Ukrainian politics over the last several years, all I can say is ... I'll believe it when I see it.

Ukraine's Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko said that "People's Self-Defense" plans to hold a conference in late spring where it may announce the formation of a new political party. Lutsenko feels that the country currently has a two-party system between the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYut) and the Party of Regions, but needs a third powerful political force.

This new party may be formed on the base of "People's Self-Defense," but will be a place for anyone who believes in the ideals of the Orange Revolution. Lutsenko noted that there would be a place in the new party for representatives of Our Ukraine and other democratic forces. Lutsenko said, "I would like to see "Our Ukrainians" who do not have a trace of business interests and betrayal. I would also like to see Vitaly Klichko in this force. Doors are also opened for those politicians who feel uncomfortable in BYut or the Party of Regions."

Lutsenko made it clear that if this new force is created, it will not be an alternative for BYuT and Our Ukraine. He wants all democratic groups to be partners, but the new group is necessary to act as a critic and restrictor to the actions of leaders in the existing parties.

I've said it before - Ukrainian politics is never boring. This is an interesting idea, but also highlights the troubles that exist between the democratic parties. Throughout most of his presidency, Viktor Yushchenko has proven to be weak, while new Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is too overbearing and lacks diplomacy.

This continued instability within the democratic forces must be cause for great concern amongst Ukrainian citizens. I hope the democratic forces can get their acts together soon, before the people decide it would be better to return to the ways of the old regime - corrupt and self-serving, but definitely more stable.

photos: Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky (left), Kyiv City Council Building (right)

Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution on Tuesday requiring early mayoral and city council elections in Kyiv. Current Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky is accused of conducting land privatization deals in Kyiv that has given away almost $3 billion worth of land plots over the last six months.

The resolution was approved by a 246-5 vote, supported by the governing coalition of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) and Our Ukraine People's Self Defense Bloc (OU-PSD), and a group from the Lytvyn Bloc. The Party of Regions did not participate in the vote.

Chernovetsky, who became mayor in 2006, responded to the resolution by stating, "I am not afraid of an early election, because I am confident of my victory. I believe Kiev citizens will decide who is really working for them."

Deputy Mayor Irena Kilchitskaya did not show the same diplomacy, stating,  “Today’s vote was unconstitutional because they had no material evidence or criminal cases in its support. This vote shows that Kiev is a political arena, and the struggle for Kiev is the beginning of the struggle for presidency. Kiev authorities are fully prepared for the early mayoral election.”

The election is expected to take place in June, 70 days after the resolution takes effect. This is the first time that the Ukrainian Parliament has ever voted to remove a local government and declare an early election in a particular regioin. Now that a precedent has been set, this practice can be used elsewhere, such as the Party of Regions dominated Kharkiv Region, which may also face an early election later this year.

Expected contestants for the mayoral position include former boxer Vitaliy Klitschko, Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko, former Kyiv mayor Oleksandr Omelchenko, and a BYuT  representative. Since all four have ties to the democratic coalition, OU-PSD faction member Kyrylo Kuliko  hopes the alliance will propose a single candidate for the election.

I'm not completely sure, but this may be the first time the democratic coalition received support from another political group. Volodymyr Lytvyn, leader of his block, seems to have his Parliament members functioining as independents, never voting on party or coalition lines, but supporting whatever initiatives seem appropriate at the time. That's a pretty good approach, if you ask me.

Mayor Chernovetsky photo courtesy of Kiev City Government Administration
Kyiv City Council Bulding photo Gnu Free Documentation License 1.2

A poll conducted by the All-Ukrainian Social Service between February 27 and March 8 found only 11.1% of respondents supported the government's desire to join NATO. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has previously said that a decision on NATO membership would only be determined after a nationwide referendum. Only 11.5% of those polled support the idea of holding a referendum on the issue, and almost 36% of respondents indicated they would vote against the plan if a referendum is held.

In January 2008, pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, Parliament Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and Tymoshenko sent a letter to NATO's Secretary General Jaap de Hoop requesting Ukraine join the alliance's Membership Action Plan. Outraged that this moved occurred without a referendum, members of the opposition Party of Regions and the Communist Party immediately blocked the work of Parliament for over a month in protest. The Verkhovna Rada was finally back in session on March 6.

2,500 people responded to the poll, whose statistical margin of error was 2.5%.

The Kyiv International Sociology Institute conducted an interesting survey during the last week of February, asking over 2,000 adult Ukrainians which form of government they prefer. The results of the poll are (margin of error: 2.2%):

Which of these forms of government would you prefer for Ukraine?

• A parliamentary-presidential republic - 38%
• A presidential-parliamentary republic - 21%
• A presidential republic - 19%
• A parliamentary republic - 7%
• One-man rule - 2%
• Not sure - 13%

The results are interesting because President Viktor Yushchenko views the current system as "problematic." Instead of having both the President and Prime Minister basically run the country, Yushchenko wants to turn Ukraine into a presidential republic. Yushchenko has already selected members for a National Constitutional Council (NCC) to draft a new body of law for Ukraine, including a possible change in government structure. Many of these members have political ties, which has raised questions regarding their ability to draft such a document in an objective manner.

If Yushchenko is serious about changing the government to a presidential republic, he has to convince a lot of people it is the right thing to do. If this recent poll is accurate, there is no way Yushchenko will get approval quickly. Therefore, he must win his re-election bid to have any chance at all of pulling this off.

I agree with Yushchenko that something in Ukraine's government has to change, I'm just not sure a presidential republic would be the best approach.

The current major issue in Ukrainian politics is the continuing power struggle between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. At times, It seems like I could write a daily news post covering their latest disagreement. The conflict, which has always been there, has intensified since Tymoshenko indicated her plan to run for President against Yushchenko in the next election.

Recently, they have clashed over the methodology of handling natural gas imports from Russia. In January, Yushchenko made an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding payment of older debts, but Tymoshenko does not want to honor it. She feels that the agreement perpetuates abuses and corruption, and could lead to the bankruptcy of Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy. The situation peaked last week when Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, tired of waiting for payment of monies due for previously delivered gas shipments, cut supplies to Ukraine by 25-35%. Soon after the supply cut, Ukraine paid all remaining gas debts accumulated through the end of 2007, and Gazprom has since returned shipments to pre-dsipute levels.

Tymoshenko is still hesitant to honor the Yushchenko/Putin agreement, claiming that the accord has set a price of $312 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. Yushchenko has called that statement an "exceptional lie", stating that the gas price for 2008 was set at $179.50 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas.

The latest news reported by The Jamestown Foundation indicates that Yushchenko has had enough of Tymoshenko, and is attempting to form a parliamentary Grand coalition that would not only remove the Prime Minister from office, but would guarantee him a second term as Ukraine's President. In the meantime, Yushchenko continues to support both the Orange coalition in the Verkhovna Rada and a Grand coalition in the National Security and Defense Council.

According to the Jamestown Foundation report, Yushchenko and former adversary Viktor Yanukovych (leader of the Party of Regions) held a secret meeting in February, that would attempt to put the following strategy into place by April (endorsed by Russia in January):

1. Our Ukraine People's Self Defense Bloc (NUNS) withdraws from the Orange coalition with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. Viktor Baloha, current presidential Chief of Staff, reportedly has 22 allies within NUNS’s 72 deputies, seven of whom have already resigned. For a faction to withdraw from a coalition requires a majority vote which, in the case of NUNS, is a minimum of 37 deputies. An additional 15 deputies will to be pressured to defect.
2. A vote of no confidence in the Tymoshenko government. The parliamentary blockade has prevented a vote on the government’s program, which would have legally prevented a vote of no confidence for 12 months.
3. The acting government will be sidelined by a new government headed by Baloha and with Yanukovych as parliamentary speaker. The Baloga government would be backed by a re-organized grand coalition that includes a wing of NUNS.
4. The Baloha government and grand coalition would support Yushchenko’s version of constitutional reforms that give back powers to the president.
5. The Baloha government and grand coalition would ensure Yushchenko’s re-election for a second term and Yanukovych would agree to not stand.

If this plan is true, things could get really interesting in the next few weeks. Currently, experts feel that in a truly fair and free Presidential election, it would be impossible for Yushchenko to overcome Tymoshenko's popularity, even with the support of the Party of Regions. The situation could change however, if the citizens of Ukraine can be convinced Tymoshenko would do more harm than good.

I find it fascinating that Yushchenko could be getting into bed with the Party of Regions in a last ditch effort to get Tymoshenko out of the way and secure his own re-election. He seems quite preoccupied with maintaining and growing his power, and is paying less attention to what is best for the country (or, due to the stalemate in Parliament, doing anything for the country).

Right now, I don't know who I would want running Ukraine:

• Yushchenko has proved to be an indecisive leader and seems more interested in power than working for the people.
• Tymoshenko does not seem to have the tact necessary to be a successful leader. She will do anything to get exactly what she wants without regard for diplomacy, and like Yushchenko, seems to be distracted by the want for power.
• Yanukovych and the Party of Regions are not a good choice because they perpetuated governmental corruption, and are not in favor of a true democratic system.
• Others, such as Baloha, also seem too preoccupied with gaining power.

I don't know who else could get the job done, but the situation has become critical and something needs to happen quickly.

Apparently Hasbro did not take my recent suggestion into consideration. Voting has ended for the two wildcard cities, and their site says the 22 winning locations will be revealed in August.

Will I even care by then if Kyiv made it into the game? Will anyone care? Oh well, maybe our interest will peak again in August.

Russian nuclear power plant construction company Atomstroyexport has begun work on the next phase of stabilization at the Chernobyl Nuclear Plant. The purpose of this project is to reinforce the badly-worn roof of the aging cement Sarcophagus covering Reactor 4. This work will be paid for by the international Chernobyl Shelter Fund, comprised of 28 countries including the G8 nations.

Construction of the New Safe Confinement structure by France's Novarka is still scheduled to begin this spring.

My friend Kathy Ryan, who works with Chernobyl Children's Project International (CCPI) just returned home from a quick trip to Belarus. In the past, Kathy has visited the Vesnova Children's Mental Asylum (orphanage), where care is provided for children who have been abandoned or diagnosed with mental conditions.

During this particular trip, Kathy had a chance to visit the Soltanovka adult mental asylum, a facility similar to Vesnova that provides care for adults. When children at Vesnova reach the age of 18 (if they survive to that age), they are automatically taken in to the Soltanovka facility.

Kathy has started a series of blog posts on the CCPI-US website describing her experiences on this trip. If her first post is any indication of what will follow, you will definitely want to bookmark the site or subscribe to the blog so you can keep up with Kathy’s upcoming articles.

Be forewarned - if you are looking for an uplifting story, you will probably be disappointed. Kathy has painted a stark picture of the dilapidated conditions at the Soltanovka facility. The staff is overwhelmed, so while the patients are clothed, washed, and fed, there no treatment plans, therapists, or activities for them. The residents typically spend their days in bed, wandering the halls, rocking back and forth in place and watching a blurry television.

Soltanovka may sound like an appalling place, but I’m sure the workers do the best they can. It’s not much, but at least the residents get regular meals and a roof over their heads. Regarding the situation at Soltanovka, Kathy remarks, "... it is the place where mentally disabled people go to die."

The worst part of this is that Kathy's story is not new. It is nothing more than the tragic continuation of what is now a 22 year saga of how the Chernobyl nuclear disaster has affected the lives of so many people in southern Belarus.

I can’t imagine seeing a situation first-hand, such as that which Kathy describes.  It has to be difficult to hide your true feelings from the residents, and must be beyond depressing.

In today’s economic climate, financial limitations can be extremely hard on charities like CCPI. I am sure after visiting Soltanovka, Kathy and CCPI will do everything they can to help, somehow fitting this need in with their many other projects. CCPI already plans to help at Soltanovka with some sanitary and cosmetic repairs - hopefully they can find the resources to provide some additonal aid.

What Kathy describes in her report is certainly not a happy story, but one that should definitely get more attention than it currently receives. Perhaps in the near future, with the help of CCPI and other charitable organizations, this story can be transformed into nothing more than the sad prelude to a happier ending.  At least I would like to think so.

Russian gas giant Gazprom cut supplies of natural gas to Ukraine on Monday, despite Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s assurances that would not happen. An initial cut of 25% was followed by a second 10% reduction later in the day.

Gazprom followed through on its threat to cut off Ukrainian gas supplies after Naftogaz Ukrainy failed to pay $600 million for 1.9 billion cubic meters of gas already received this year. Naftogaz has also rejected proposals from the Russian gas giant to re-negotiate the gas trade between the two countries.

Tymoshenko wants to restructure the control of the Ukrainian gas market and remove the middlemen from the gas trade with Russia. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko urged Tymoshenko to avoid a “gas war” with Russia and reach a deal with Gazprom this week.

If this situation sounds familiar, Gazprom completely cut gas supplies to Ukraine at the beginning of 2006 due to a similar dispute. An unintentional side effect of the 2006 cut off was a major reduction in gas supplies to other European countries. According to Gazprom, European supplies are not under serious threat this time.

The partial gas cutoff came hours after Gazprom chairman Dmitry Medvedev won Russia’s Presidential election.

It could not have been easier for Dmitry Medvedev in Sunday's 2008 Russian Presidential election. With virtually no campaigning, Medevdev picked up approximately 70% of the vote. Even his refusal to debate the other three candidates did not seem to sway the voters.

The current results, with 99.45% of votes counted are:

• Dmitry Medvedev - 70.23%
• Gennady Zyuganov - 17.75%
• Vladimir Zhirinovsky - 9.36%
• Andrei Bogdanov - 1.29%

Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky are expected to challenge the results in court. Good luck guys - the Central Election Commission already declared the election as valid, and don't think for a minute that the courts would go against Putin's wishes.

From the above photo, one has to wonder about the President-elect's clothing fashion - definitely not typical for a future head of state.

ABC News has an interesting article and accompanying video (“Living Near Chernobyl”) on their website about an American Radiation Protection Physicist, Joel Hoyt, who with his family has moved from their home in Washington state to Slavutych, Ukraine.

Hoyt works at the Chernobyl Nuclear Plant, working on the Chernobyl Shelter Implementation Program. He spends his days tracking radiation leakage from cracks in the Sarcophagus structure, and develops maintenance plans to insure the safety of workers and citizens in nearby communities.

The story and 3-minute video focus on Hoyt, his wife Alisa and daughter Jocelyn (their son Trevor is also with them). Jocelyn is the only American in her class. She speaks and sings Ukrainian, serving as a translator for reporter David Wright.

This is definitely worth a quick look.

Additional Information

The Hoyts moved to Slavutych in late 2005 and live in a 3-bedroom cottage. Alisa is home-schooling Trevor while Jocelyn attends a local kindergarten. Trevor plays soccer and Jocelyn takes dance lessons.

Joel Hoyt works for Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and has been involved in an international effort to stabilize the existing Sarcophagus.

Slavutych is a small city with a population of approximately 25,000, and was built in late 1986 as a replacement for Pripyat. The city is located approximately 50 km northeast of the Chernobyl plant. Current employees of the plant are required to live in the city.

Families in Moldova continue to receive emergency assistance from United Nations humanitarian agencies in response to last summer's extreme drought. In the latest phase of a multi-step relief program, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) has supplied more than 30,000 farms with enough seed corn to allow for the upcoming spring season planting, and 9,000 tons of livestock fodder to over 20,000 households. So far, over 135,000 people have received assistance.

Organization of relief efforts has been provided by UNDP, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), and the World Food Programme (WFP) in response to last July's appeal from the Moldovan government.

Moldova is Europe's poorest country, and its economy is heavily dependent on agriculture. With rainfall totals 50-75% below average, the drought affected approximately 84% of the country's arable land. A study by the International Money Fund (IMF) found that as a result of the drought, the Moldovan agricultural sector lost approximately 100,000 jobs.