Are Yushchenko's Grand Coalition Plans Real?
The current major issue in Ukrainian politics is the continuing power struggle between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. At times, It seems like I could write a daily news post covering their latest disagreement. The conflict, which has always been there, has intensified since Tymoshenko indicated her plan to run for President against Yushchenko in the next election.
Recently, they have clashed over the methodology of handling natural gas imports from Russia. In January, Yushchenko made an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding payment of older debts, but Tymoshenko does not want to honor it. She feels that the agreement perpetuates abuses and corruption, and could lead to the bankruptcy of Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy. The situation peaked last week when Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, tired of waiting for payment of monies due for previously delivered gas shipments, cut supplies to Ukraine by 25-35%. Soon after the supply cut, Ukraine paid all remaining gas debts accumulated through the end of 2007, and Gazprom has since returned shipments to pre-dsipute levels.
Tymoshenko is still hesitant to honor the Yushchenko/Putin agreement, claiming that the accord has set a price of $312 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. Yushchenko has called that statement an "exceptional lie", stating that the gas price for 2008 was set at $179.50 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas.
The latest news reported by The Jamestown Foundation indicates that Yushchenko has had enough of Tymoshenko, and is attempting to form a parliamentary Grand coalition that would not only remove the Prime Minister from office, but would guarantee him a second term as Ukraine's President. In the meantime, Yushchenko continues to support both the Orange coalition in the Verkhovna Rada and a Grand coalition in the National Security and Defense Council.
According to the Jamestown Foundation report, Yushchenko and former adversary Viktor Yanukovych (leader of the Party of Regions) held a secret meeting in February, that would attempt to put the following strategy into place by April (endorsed by Russia in January):
I find it fascinating that Yushchenko could be getting into bed with the Party of Regions in a last ditch effort to get Tymoshenko out of the way and secure his own re-election. He seems quite preoccupied with maintaining and growing his power, and is paying less attention to what is best for the country (or, due to the stalemate in Parliament, doing anything for the country).
Right now, I don't know who I would want running Ukraine:
Recently, they have clashed over the methodology of handling natural gas imports from Russia. In January, Yushchenko made an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding payment of older debts, but Tymoshenko does not want to honor it. She feels that the agreement perpetuates abuses and corruption, and could lead to the bankruptcy of Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy. The situation peaked last week when Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, tired of waiting for payment of monies due for previously delivered gas shipments, cut supplies to Ukraine by 25-35%. Soon after the supply cut, Ukraine paid all remaining gas debts accumulated through the end of 2007, and Gazprom has since returned shipments to pre-dsipute levels.
Tymoshenko is still hesitant to honor the Yushchenko/Putin agreement, claiming that the accord has set a price of $312 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. Yushchenko has called that statement an "exceptional lie", stating that the gas price for 2008 was set at $179.50 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas.
The latest news reported by The Jamestown Foundation indicates that Yushchenko has had enough of Tymoshenko, and is attempting to form a parliamentary Grand coalition that would not only remove the Prime Minister from office, but would guarantee him a second term as Ukraine's President. In the meantime, Yushchenko continues to support both the Orange coalition in the Verkhovna Rada and a Grand coalition in the National Security and Defense Council.
According to the Jamestown Foundation report, Yushchenko and former adversary Viktor Yanukovych (leader of the Party of Regions) held a secret meeting in February, that would attempt to put the following strategy into place by April (endorsed by Russia in January):
- Our Ukraine People's Self Defense Bloc (NUNS) withdraws from the Orange coalition with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. Viktor Baloha, current presidential Chief of Staff, reportedly has 22 allies within NUNS’s 72 deputies, seven of whom have already resigned. For a faction to withdraw from a coalition requires a majority vote which, in the case of NUNS, is a minimum of 37 deputies. An additional 15 deputies will to be pressured to defect.
- A vote of no confidence in the Tymoshenko government. The parliamentary blockade has prevented a vote on the government’s program, which would have legally prevented a vote of no confidence for 12 months.
- The acting government will be sidelined by a new government headed by Baloha and with Yanukovych as parliamentary speaker. The Baloga government would be backed by a re-organized grand coalition that includes a wing of NUNS.
- The Baloha government and grand coalition would support Yushchenko’s version of constitutional reforms that give back powers to the president.
- The Baloha government and grand coalition would ensure Yushchenko’s re-election for a second term and Yanukovych would agree to not stand.
I find it fascinating that Yushchenko could be getting into bed with the Party of Regions in a last ditch effort to get Tymoshenko out of the way and secure his own re-election. He seems quite preoccupied with maintaining and growing his power, and is paying less attention to what is best for the country (or, due to the stalemate in Parliament, doing anything for the country).
Right now, I don't know who I would want running Ukraine:
- Yushchenko has proved to be an indecisive leader and seems more interested in power than working for the people.
- Tymoshenko does not seem to have the tact necessary to be a successful leader. She will do anything to get exactly what she wants without regard for diplomacy, and like Yushchenko, seems to be distracted by the want for power.
- Yanukovych and the Party of Regions are not a good choice because they perpetuated governmental corruption, and are not in favor of a true democratic system.
- Others, such as Baloha, also seem too preoccupied with gaining power.
