Ukraine's Democratic Coalition Loses Parliamentary Majority

Two members from the Ukraine's ruling pro-Western coalition resigned today, leaving the Democratic forces one vote short of the 226 needed to establish a majority in the Verkhovna Rada.

Ihor Rybakov from the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) and Yuri But from Our Ukraine People's Self Defense Bloc both resigned Friday, surprising leaders of both political groups. The "Orange" coalition, which has held a razor-thin Parliamentary majority since late last year, now holds exactly half the 450-seats in the Verkhovna Rada. It is unclear if the coalition will remain viable or if new elections will be required.

If a new ruling majority cannot be formed, President Viktor Yushchenko, by Constitutional statute, can call for new elections in 60 days. BYuT MP Valery Pisarenko believes this will not affect the ruling coalition because law allows for the replacement of a resigning member from a ruling coalition by another party list member.  

Oleksander Efimov, a member of the Parliament rules committee, disagrees, stating the departures make the ruling coalition null and void. He said that Parliament will be unable to act on any legislation until a new ruling majority is formed.

Without a doubt, this is a surprising development. The Democratic coalition has already been on shaky ground due to the disputes between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko. It will be interesting to see if these deputies can merely be replaced, or if it forces a new election. The "Orange" coalition has demonstrated such a lack of unity that a new election would most likely put the opposition Party of Regions (PoR) back in power. A new election would also favor Yushchenko's desire to form a grand coalition with PoR, which could help him gain support for next year's Presidential election.  Stay tuned - this could get extremely interesting.