Early Ukraine Presidential Poll - December 2008

According to a social survey titled “Crisis 2008: Ukrainian politics in the mirror of public opinion,” Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych and current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko would both reach the second round of a presidential election, if it was held now. Current President Viktor Yushchenko would not make it to a second round.

The poll of 2,004 respondents was conducted across the country, including Kyiv, Crimea and Sevastopol beteween December 2 and 11.

The report, presented by the Sophia Center of Social Studies found the following for a first round presidential election:

Viktor Yanukovych - 20.9%
Yulia Tymoshenko - 17.7%
Viktor Yushchenko - 4.6%

The following represents public opinion for a second round election:

Viktor Yanukovych - 31.7%
Yulia Tymoshenko - 27.5%

The same poll also posted approximate vote totals for a new parliamentary election:

Party of Regions - 19.9%
Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc - 18.3%
Communist Party - 6.7%
Lytvyn Bloc - 5.7%
Our Ukraine People’s Self Defense Bloc - 3.8%
Progressive Socialist Party 2.2%

The survey margin of error was 2.2%. It is interesting to note that after a second round election, neither presidential candidate reaches the required 50% threshold. However, this is only a poll, and an early one at that, so it is difficult to predict what will really happen.

In the parliamentary poll, the Progressive Socialist Party has a chance to make the 3% threshold for seats in the Verkhovna Rada. Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine People’s Self Defense Bloc looks to secure a few seats, which is better than summer polls that indicated the group would not reach the 3% threshold.

To me, the most fascinating observation is that Tymoshenko seems to have lost some of her popularity. In previous polls, she easily led all potential candidates and now she is a solid second.

Photos: Yulia Tymoshenko - © Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc
Viktor Yanukovych - © Viktor Yanukovych Personal Information Server