Latest Ukrainian Presidential Election Poll - Voting Scheduled for January 2010

After a lengthy layoff, today seems like a good time to return to discussions about Ukrainian politics. Ukraine's next presidential election is scheduled for January 17, 2010. If a second round ballot is necessary, it is expected to occur in February 2010.

According to an August 20, 2009 poll of 3,011 respondents by Kyiv-based Research & Branding Group, the Party of Regions' Viktor Yanukovych will become Ukraine's next president. Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko has little chance of being a factor in the election. The poll results were:

  • Viktor Yanukovych - 26%
  • Yulia Tymoshenko - 16.5%
  • Arseniy Yatseniuk - 12.6%
  • Petro Simonenko - 4.5%
  • Vladimir Lytvyn - 4.2%
  • Viktor Yushchenko - 2%
  • Others - 7.3%
  • Against all candidates - 9.9%
The same poll provided the following results when asked who they would vote for if Tymoshenko and Yanukovych entered a second round of voting:

  • Viktor Yanukovych - 39.6%
  • Yulia Tymoshenko - 28%
  • Against all candidates - 19%
  • Will not vote - 6.8%
  • Difficult to answer - 6.6%
The poll also asked respondents which political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.  The results were:

  • Party of Regions - 27.9%
  • Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc - 16%
  • Arseniy Yatseniuk Bloc - 9.2%
  • Vladimir Lytvyn Bloc - 4.8%
  • Communist Party - 4.4%
  • Others - 9.4%
  • Against all parties - 9.6%
  • Will not vote - 7.1%
  • Difficult to answer - 11.6%
President VIktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party fell into the "Others" category. If these results hold through the election, expect some big political changes in Ukraine's government.

Technically, with the exception of less internal bickering, it may be difficult to see any changes in government, but it could very well be a throwback to the Leonid Kuchma era. Remember, Yanukovych was Kuchma's handpicked successor, but still lost to Yushchenko in the 2004 election, due in part to the Orange Revolution.

Don't expect a repeat of the Orange Revolution this time. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko completely blew their chance to effect real change in Ukraine. After all the nonsense of the last five years, all the people want now is a stable political situation and to reverse the course of the country's economic downturn.

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