Recently in Politics Category

Ukraine's Administrative Court has suspended the results of the country's February 7 runoff presidential election while it considers an appeal filed by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych defeated Tymoshenko in the election by 3.48% of the vote. Yanukovych's inauguration is currently scheduled for February 25.

Despite the declaration by international election monitors that the vote was free and fair, Tymoshenko claims the vote was fraudulent. Yesterday, Tymoshenko submitted to the court what she said is evidence of election fraud. Tymoshenko claims to have uncovered evidence of fraud in favor of Yanukovych at every polling station in Crimea, possibly accounting for over 1 million votes. She also claims to have the support of several individual OSCE observers and videos of their assessments. The OSCE has denied the existence of any videos that support Tymoshenko's claims.

At this point, I'm not sure what to believe. However, it is interesting that Tymoshenko is limiting her fight to the courts. She says she will not be arranging any public protests, similar to the 2004 Orange Revolution.

Is it possible that Tymoshenko is not calling for public protests because she does not have credibility with the Ukrainian people to successfully arrange for such a gathering? By not calling for public protests, Tymoshenko appears to be making this a personal issue instead of fighting for the rights of the Ukrainian people to have a fair election.

Several exit polls indicate opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych has narrowly won Sunday's presidential runoff election in Ukraine. Challenger and current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is expected to challenge the election results.

Ukraine's National Exit Poll 2010, which is conducted by a group of leading pollsters, indicated Yanukovych, the leader of the Party of Regions, received 48.7% of the vote, as compared to 45.5% for Tymoshenko.  The poll's margin of error is 2.5%.

International market research firm GfK Group indicated a larger margin of victory for Yanukovych, 49.8% to 45.2%, with a margin of error of 1.6%.

It appears that many Ukrainians were not voting for a particular candidate, as much as they were voting against the other.

Outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko urged his supporters to vote against both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, saying that Ukrainians will be ashamed of the choice they have to make.

Oleksandr Turchynov, Tymoshenko's campaign manager, said they would contest votes cast at over 1,000 polling stations in Ukraine's Donetsk region, an area that strongly supports Yanukovych. Turchynov indicated that Tymoshenko delegates were barred from polling places in the region. Turchynov also complained of multiple voting and bribery.

Ukraine's Interior Ministry said they had not received reports of serious violations during Sunday's vote.

Yanukovych has indicated if he became president, he will attempt to remove Tymoshenko as prime minister by encouraging defections from her coalition and forming his own parliamentary majority. If that fails, he plans to call for a new parliamentary election a year ahead of schedule.

These election results reflect the feelings of many Ukrainians that the Orange Revolutioin failed to deliver prosperity and stability. Instead, it led to regular bouts of political infighting and the country's current economic crisis. What a shame!

Photo: Rowland Goodman - Creative Commons

After a lengthy layoff, today seems like a good time to return to discussions about Ukrainian politics. Ukraine's next presidential election is scheduled for January 17, 2010. If a second round ballot is necessary, it is expected to occur in February 2010.

According to an August 20, 2009 poll of 3,011 respondents by Kyiv-based Research & Branding Group, the Party of Regions' Viktor Yanukovych will become Ukraine's next president. Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko has little chance of being a factor in the election. The poll results were:

• Viktor Yanukovych - 26%
• Yulia Tymoshenko - 16.5%
• Arseniy Yatseniuk - 12.6%
• Petro Simonenko - 4.5%
• Vladimir Lytvyn - 4.2%
• Viktor Yushchenko - 2%
• Others - 7.3%
• Against all candidates - 9.9%

The same poll provided the following results when asked who they would vote for if Tymoshenko and Yanukovych entered a second round of voting:

• Viktor Yanukovych - 39.6%
• Yulia Tymoshenko - 28%
• Against all candidates - 19%
• Will not vote - 6.8%
• Difficult to answer - 6.6%

The poll also asked respondents which political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.  The results were:

• Party of Regions - 27.9%
• Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc - 16%
• Arseniy Yatseniuk Bloc - 9.2%
• Vladimir Lytvyn Bloc - 4.8%
• Communist Party - 4.4%
• Others - 9.4%
• Against all parties - 9.6%
• Will not vote - 7.1%
• Difficult to answer - 11.6%

President VIktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party fell into the "Others" category. If these results hold through the election, expect some big political changes in Ukraine's government.

Technically, with the exception of less internal bickering, it may be difficult to see any changes in government, but it could very well be a throwback to the Leonid Kuchma era. Remember, Yanukovych was Kuchma's handpicked successor, but still lost to Yushchenko in the 2004 election, due in part to the Orange Revolution.

Don't expect a repeat of the Orange Revolution this time. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko completely blew their chance to effect real change in Ukraine. After all the nonsense of the last five years, all the people want now is a stable political situation and to reverse the course of the country's economic downturn.

Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada has scheduled the country's next presidential election for January 17, 2010. Parliament had previously scheduled the election for October 25, 2009, but President Viktor Yushchenko appealed to the Constitutional Court, which found the decision to be unconstitutional.

A recent presidential election poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology revealed the following results:

• Viktor Yanukovych (Party of Regions) - 34.7%
• Yulia Tymoshenko (Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc) - 21.5%
• Arseniy Yatseniuk (Change Front Citizens Initiative) - 17.6%

If a run-off election is required, it will most likely be held on February 7, 2010. The main question is, if a run-off is necessary, who would face off against Viktor Yanukovych? For a long time, the likely choice was Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. However, her inability to deal with Ukraine's economic crisis has significantly damaged her popularity. Meanwhile, former Rada Speaker Yatseniuk's popularity has accordingly increased.

It is unlikely that Yushchenko will gain re-election, with current popularity ratings in the low single digits and his Our Ukraine party recently withdrawing from Ukraine's ruling political coalition.

A recent public opinion poll conducted by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute indicates Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych has increased his lead heading toward the next Ukrainian presidential election.

The poll results are:

• Viktor Yanukovych (Party of Regions) - 25.6%
• Yulia Tymoshenko (Prime Minister/BYuT) - 14.4%
• Arseniy Yatsenyuk (former Parliament Speaker) - 13.6%
• Petro Symonenko (Communist Party) - 3.3%
• Volodymyr Lytvyn (current Parliament Speaker/Lytvyn Bloc) - 2.9%
• Viktor Yushchenko (current President) - 2.4%

Yanukovych's lead has increased from 1.4% in a March poll by the Ramukov Center to 11.2% over current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. President Viktor Yushchenko remains at the bottom of the poll and continues to lose support.

This latest poll was conducted by interviewing 1,984 Ukrainian citizens between March 26 and April 17, 2009. The margin of error is 2.5%.

A recent Ukrainian public opinion poll conducted by the Raumkov Center indicates former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and current PM Yulia Tymoshenko have the best chance of winning Ukraine’s next presidential election.

The poll results are:

• Viktor Yanukovych (leader of Party of Regions) - 17.1%
• Yulia Tymoshenko (current Prime Minister) - 15.7%
• Arseniy Yatseniuk (former Parliament Speaker) - 11.8%
• Volodymyr Lytvyn (current Parliament Speaker) - 5.2%
• Petro Symonenko (leader of Communist Party) - 4.2%
• Viktor Yushchenko (current President) - 3.5%

The poll was conducted in 129 locations and included 2,012 respondents. The margin of error does not exceed 2.3%.

The results are really not much of a surprise. If anything, this could be a very interesting election

Arseniy Yatseniuk, a 34-year old Ukrainian politician, appears ready to become a candidate in Ukraine’s 2010 presidential election. Yatseniuk, who claims to have no allies amongst the current major politicians, has created a new political party called Change Front Citizens Initiative. According to a recent public opinion poll, a Yatseniuk-led political party would gain more than 3% of the vote, thus gaining seats in Parliament.

The following is a list of Yatseniuk’s past experience:

• 2001-2003: Economic Minister - Crimea
• 2003-2004: First Vice President - Ukraine’s Central Bank
• 2004-2005: Acting Head of Ukraine’s Central Bank
• 2005: Vice Governor of Odessa Oblast (under Socialist Vasyl Tsushko)
• 2005-2006: Economic Minister - Ukraine
• 2006: Deputy Head of President Viktor Yushchenko’s Administration
• 2007: Foreign Minister - Ukraine
• 2007-2008: Speaker of Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s Parliament)

Webster Brooks has posted an interesting article in the Brooks Foreign Policy Review about the possibilities of a Yatseniuk presidency - “Can Arseniy Yatsenyuk Save Ukraine from Itself.” The article compares Yatseniuk to Barak Obama’s quick rise in the U.S. If you are interested in Ukrainian politics, this article is definitely a worthwhile read.

Photo: NATO

On December 30, 2008 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed into law a constitutional amendment extending presidential terms from four to six years.

This law has increased speculation that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will return as President after the next election. As President, Putin said he would prefer a longer term, but felt it was unethical to change the constitution while in office. Medvedev, perceived by many as Putin’s puppet, proposed the constitutional change six months after taking office.

The bill was rushed through the State Duma, much quicker than most laws. Officials have indicated the extension will not apply to Medvedev’s current term in office, raising further questions about the bill’s quick move through the Duma.

Apparently an anonymous Kremlin advisor has been quoted as saying the reform is intended to return Putin to the presidency as early as 2009. It has been suggested that Medvedev would enact the amendment and several unpopular social reforms. He would then resign and call a pre-term election in 2009. If Putin returns to power for two more terms, he would govern until 2021, allowing him to fulfill the Putin Plan for the social and economic development of Russia.

According to a social survey titled “Crisis 2008: Ukrainian politics in the mirror of public opinion,” Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych and current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko would both reach the second round of a presidential election, if it was held now. Current President Viktor Yushchenko would not make it to a second round.

The poll of 2,004 respondents was conducted across the country, including Kyiv, Crimea and Sevastopol beteween December 2 and 11.

The report, presented by the Sophia Center of Social Studies found the following for a first round presidential election:

• Viktor Yanukovych - 20.9%
• Yulia Tymoshenko - 17.7%
• Viktor Yushchenko - 4.6%

The following represents public opinion for a second round election:

• Viktor Yanukovych - 31.7%
• Yulia Tymoshenko - 27.5%

The same poll also posted approximate vote totals for a new parliamentary election:

• Party of Regions - 19.9%
• Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc - 18.3%
• Communist Party - 6.7%
• Lytvyn Bloc - 5.7%
• Our Ukraine People’s Self Defense Bloc - 3.8%
• Progressive Socialist Party 2.2%

The survey margin of error was 2.2%. It is interesting to note that after a second round election, neither presidential candidate reaches the required 50% threshold. However, this is only a poll, and an early one at that, so it is difficult to predict what will really happen.

In the parliamentary poll, the Progressive Socialist Party has a chance to make the 3% threshold for seats in the Verkhovna Rada. Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine People’s Self Defense Bloc looks to secure a few seats, which is better than summer polls that indicated the group would not reach the 3% threshold.

To me, the most fascinating observation is that Tymoshenko seems to have lost some of her popularity. In previous polls, she easily led all potential candidates and now she is a solid second.

Photos: Yulia Tymoshenko - © Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc
             Viktor Yanukovych - © Viktor Yanukovych Personal Information Server

Surprise, Surprise! A new coalition agreement has been signed between:

• President Viktor Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine People’s Self Defense Bloc
• Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Bloc
• New parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s Bloc

The new coalition claims to have 248 seats in the 450-member Verkhovna Rada, thus breaking the country’s 3-month parliamentary deadlock. However, there are reports that approximately 30 of Yushchenko’s deputies oppose the alliance, including top lieutenant Vyacheslav Kirilenko, who resigned as faction chief. A ruling coalition can only exist when it has at least a majority 226 votes.

Even if the new coalition has a parliamentary majority, don’t expect much to change. All the players remain the same, except for the inclusion of Lytvyn. At least this should be the end of discussions for the new parliamentary election Yushchenko called for, but canceled due to lack of funding.

Probably the only reason this happened is that Ukraine has been hit extremely hard by the world financial crisis. Yushchenko believes the country’s economy could contract by 7-10% in the first quarter of 2009. That would come on top of this year’s loss of revenue from declining steel prices (exports) and falling GDP (14.4% in November as compared to November 2007). Ukraine is also in another battle with Russia over gas prices.