Ukraine: March 2008 Archives
Today, during a press conference covering the first 100 days of the new government, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko told reporters she is ready to support President Viktor Yushchenko's bid for re-election ... under certain conditions, of course.
Tymoshenko said, “If there is a normal harmonious collaboration between the President and me at the current stage, if we work as a single team and yield result to society, without any condition, I will make that there will be a single candidate from the democratic forces. I may support Victor Andriyovych [Yushchenko]."
This is certainly a nice gesture, but is it realistic? The President and Prime Minister have butted heads about almost everything since Tymoshenko assumed office in December. Why should anyone believe things will suddenly change now? It would certainly be nice to see the democratic coalition function as a single group without internal conflicts. I guess we'll have to see how Yushchenko responds.
If an agreement can be reached, I wonder if that would change Yuri Lutsenko's plans for creating a new political party. Lutsenko may continue with his plans, since he said the new party would be created as a partner in the democratic forces, not as an alternative to the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine People's Self Defense Bloc.
After everything we have seen in Ukrainian politics over the last several years, all I can say is ... I'll believe it when I see it.
Tymoshenko said, “If there is a normal harmonious collaboration between the President and me at the current stage, if we work as a single team and yield result to society, without any condition, I will make that there will be a single candidate from the democratic forces. I may support Victor Andriyovych [Yushchenko]."
This is certainly a nice gesture, but is it realistic? The President and Prime Minister have butted heads about almost everything since Tymoshenko assumed office in December. Why should anyone believe things will suddenly change now? It would certainly be nice to see the democratic coalition function as a single group without internal conflicts. I guess we'll have to see how Yushchenko responds.
If an agreement can be reached, I wonder if that would change Yuri Lutsenko's plans for creating a new political party. Lutsenko may continue with his plans, since he said the new party would be created as a partner in the democratic forces, not as an alternative to the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine People's Self Defense Bloc.
After everything we have seen in Ukrainian politics over the last several years, all I can say is ... I'll believe it when I see it.
Ukraine's Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko said that "People's Self-Defense" plans to hold a conference in late spring where it may announce the formation of a new political party. Lutsenko feels that the country currently has a two-party system between the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYut) and the Party of Regions, but needs a third powerful political force.This new party may be formed on the base of "People's Self-Defense," but will be a place for anyone who believes in the ideals of the Orange Revolution. Lutsenko noted that there would be a place in the new party for representatives of Our Ukraine and other democratic forces. Lutsenko said, "I would like to see "Our Ukrainians" who do not have a trace of business interests and betrayal. I would also like to see Vitaly Klichko in this force. Doors are also opened for those politicians who feel uncomfortable in BYut or the Party of Regions."
Lutsenko made it clear that if this new force is created, it will not be an alternative for BYuT and Our Ukraine. He wants all democratic groups to be partners, but the new group is necessary to act as a critic and restrictor to the actions of leaders in the existing parties.
I've said it before - Ukrainian politics is never boring. This is an interesting idea, but also highlights the troubles that exist between the democratic parties. Throughout most of his presidency, Viktor Yushchenko has proven to be weak, while new Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is too overbearing and lacks diplomacy.
This continued instability within the democratic forces must be cause for great concern amongst Ukrainian citizens. I hope the democratic forces can get their acts together soon, before the people decide it would be better to return to the ways of the old regime - corrupt and self-serving, but definitely more stable.
photos: Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky (left), Kyiv City Council Building (right)
Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution on Tuesday requiring early mayoral and city council elections in Kyiv. Current Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky is accused of conducting land privatization deals in Kyiv that has given away almost $3 billion worth of land plots over the last six months.
The resolution was approved by a 246-5 vote, supported by the governing coalition of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) and Our Ukraine People's Self Defense Bloc (OU-PSD), and a group from the Lytvyn Bloc. The Party of Regions did not participate in the vote.
Chernovetsky, who became mayor in 2006, responded to the resolution by stating, "I am not afraid of an early election, because I am confident of my victory. I believe Kiev citizens will decide who is really working for them."
Deputy Mayor Irena Kilchitskaya did not show the same diplomacy, stating, “Today’s vote was unconstitutional because they had no material evidence or criminal cases in its support. This vote shows that Kiev is a political arena, and the struggle for Kiev is the beginning of the struggle for presidency. Kiev authorities are fully prepared for the early mayoral election.”
The election is expected to take place in June, 70 days after the resolution takes effect. This is the first time that the Ukrainian Parliament has ever voted to remove a local government and declare an early election in a particular regioin. Now that a precedent has been set, this practice can be used elsewhere, such as the Party of Regions dominated Kharkiv Region, which may also face an early election later this year.
Expected contestants for the mayoral position include former boxer Vitaliy Klitschko, Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko, former Kyiv mayor Oleksandr Omelchenko, and a BYuT representative. Since all four have ties to the democratic coalition, OU-PSD faction member Kyrylo Kuliko hopes the alliance will propose a single candidate for the election.
I'm not completely sure, but this may be the first time the democratic coalition received support from another political group. Volodymyr Lytvyn, leader of his block, seems to have his Parliament members functioining as independents, never voting on party or coalition lines, but supporting whatever initiatives seem appropriate at the time. That's a pretty good approach, if you ask me.
Mayor Chernovetsky photo courtesy of Kiev City Government Administration
Kyiv City Council Bulding photo Gnu Free Documentation License 1.2
A poll conducted by the All-Ukrainian Social Service between February 27 and March 8 found only 11.1% of respondents supported the government's desire to join NATO. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has previously said that a decision on NATO membership would only be determined after a nationwide referendum. Only 11.5% of those polled support the idea of holding a referendum on the issue, and almost 36% of respondents indicated they would vote against the plan if a referendum is held.In January 2008, pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, Parliament Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and Tymoshenko sent a letter to NATO's Secretary General Jaap de Hoop requesting Ukraine join the alliance's Membership Action Plan. Outraged that this moved occurred without a referendum, members of the opposition Party of Regions and the Communist Party immediately blocked the work of Parliament for over a month in protest. The Verkhovna Rada was finally back in session on March 6.
2,500 people responded to the poll, whose statistical margin of error was 2.5%.
The Kyiv International Sociology Institute conducted an interesting survey during the last week of February, asking over 2,000 adult Ukrainians which form of government they prefer. The results of the poll are (margin of error: 2.2%):
Which of these forms of government would you prefer for Ukraine?
If Yushchenko is serious about changing the government to a presidential republic, he has to convince a lot of people it is the right thing to do. If this recent poll is accurate, there is no way Yushchenko will get approval quickly. Therefore, he must win his re-election bid to have any chance at all of pulling this off.
I agree with Yushchenko that something in Ukraine's government has to change, I'm just not sure a presidential republic would be the best approach.
Which of these forms of government would you prefer for Ukraine?
- A parliamentary-presidential republic - 38%
- A presidential-parliamentary republic - 21%
- A presidential republic - 19%
- A parliamentary republic - 7%
- One-man rule - 2%
- Not sure - 13%
If Yushchenko is serious about changing the government to a presidential republic, he has to convince a lot of people it is the right thing to do. If this recent poll is accurate, there is no way Yushchenko will get approval quickly. Therefore, he must win his re-election bid to have any chance at all of pulling this off.
I agree with Yushchenko that something in Ukraine's government has to change, I'm just not sure a presidential republic would be the best approach.
The current major issue in Ukrainian politics is the continuing power struggle between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. At times, It seems like I could write a daily news post covering their latest disagreement. The conflict, which has always been there, has intensified since Tymoshenko indicated her plan to run for President against Yushchenko in the next election.
Recently, they have clashed over the methodology of handling natural gas imports from Russia. In January, Yushchenko made an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding payment of older debts, but Tymoshenko does not want to honor it. She feels that the agreement perpetuates abuses and corruption, and could lead to the bankruptcy of Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy. The situation peaked last week when Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, tired of waiting for payment of monies due for previously delivered gas shipments, cut supplies to Ukraine by 25-35%. Soon after the supply cut, Ukraine paid all remaining gas debts accumulated through the end of 2007, and Gazprom has since returned shipments to pre-dsipute levels.
Tymoshenko is still hesitant to honor the Yushchenko/Putin agreement, claiming that the accord has set a price of $312 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. Yushchenko has called that statement an "exceptional lie", stating that the gas price for 2008 was set at $179.50 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas.
The latest news reported by The Jamestown Foundation indicates that Yushchenko has had enough of Tymoshenko, and is attempting to form a parliamentary Grand coalition that would not only remove the Prime Minister from office, but would guarantee him a second term as Ukraine's President. In the meantime, Yushchenko continues to support both the Orange coalition in the Verkhovna Rada and a Grand coalition in the National Security and Defense Council.
According to the Jamestown Foundation report, Yushchenko and former adversary Viktor Yanukovych (leader of the Party of Regions) held a secret meeting in February, that would attempt to put the following strategy into place by April (endorsed by Russia in January):
I find it fascinating that Yushchenko could be getting into bed with the Party of Regions in a last ditch effort to get Tymoshenko out of the way and secure his own re-election. He seems quite preoccupied with maintaining and growing his power, and is paying less attention to what is best for the country (or, due to the stalemate in Parliament, doing anything for the country).
Right now, I don't know who I would want running Ukraine:
Recently, they have clashed over the methodology of handling natural gas imports from Russia. In January, Yushchenko made an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding payment of older debts, but Tymoshenko does not want to honor it. She feels that the agreement perpetuates abuses and corruption, and could lead to the bankruptcy of Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy. The situation peaked last week when Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, tired of waiting for payment of monies due for previously delivered gas shipments, cut supplies to Ukraine by 25-35%. Soon after the supply cut, Ukraine paid all remaining gas debts accumulated through the end of 2007, and Gazprom has since returned shipments to pre-dsipute levels.
Tymoshenko is still hesitant to honor the Yushchenko/Putin agreement, claiming that the accord has set a price of $312 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. Yushchenko has called that statement an "exceptional lie", stating that the gas price for 2008 was set at $179.50 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas.
The latest news reported by The Jamestown Foundation indicates that Yushchenko has had enough of Tymoshenko, and is attempting to form a parliamentary Grand coalition that would not only remove the Prime Minister from office, but would guarantee him a second term as Ukraine's President. In the meantime, Yushchenko continues to support both the Orange coalition in the Verkhovna Rada and a Grand coalition in the National Security and Defense Council.
According to the Jamestown Foundation report, Yushchenko and former adversary Viktor Yanukovych (leader of the Party of Regions) held a secret meeting in February, that would attempt to put the following strategy into place by April (endorsed by Russia in January):
- Our Ukraine People's Self Defense Bloc (NUNS) withdraws from the Orange coalition with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. Viktor Baloha, current presidential Chief of Staff, reportedly has 22 allies within NUNS’s 72 deputies, seven of whom have already resigned. For a faction to withdraw from a coalition requires a majority vote which, in the case of NUNS, is a minimum of 37 deputies. An additional 15 deputies will to be pressured to defect.
- A vote of no confidence in the Tymoshenko government. The parliamentary blockade has prevented a vote on the government’s program, which would have legally prevented a vote of no confidence for 12 months.
- The acting government will be sidelined by a new government headed by Baloha and with Yanukovych as parliamentary speaker. The Baloga government would be backed by a re-organized grand coalition that includes a wing of NUNS.
- The Baloha government and grand coalition would support Yushchenko’s version of constitutional reforms that give back powers to the president.
- The Baloha government and grand coalition would ensure Yushchenko’s re-election for a second term and Yanukovych would agree to not stand.
I find it fascinating that Yushchenko could be getting into bed with the Party of Regions in a last ditch effort to get Tymoshenko out of the way and secure his own re-election. He seems quite preoccupied with maintaining and growing his power, and is paying less attention to what is best for the country (or, due to the stalemate in Parliament, doing anything for the country).
Right now, I don't know who I would want running Ukraine:
- Yushchenko has proved to be an indecisive leader and seems more interested in power than working for the people.
- Tymoshenko does not seem to have the tact necessary to be a successful leader. She will do anything to get exactly what she wants without regard for diplomacy, and like Yushchenko, seems to be distracted by the want for power.
- Yanukovych and the Party of Regions are not a good choice because they perpetuated governmental corruption, and are not in favor of a true democratic system.
- Others, such as Baloha, also seem too preoccupied with gaining power.
Russian gas giant Gazprom cut supplies of natural gas to Ukraine on Monday, despite Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s assurances that would not happen. An initial cut of 25% was followed by a second 10% reduction later in the day.Gazprom followed through on its threat to cut off Ukrainian gas supplies after Naftogaz Ukrainy failed to pay $600 million for 1.9 billion cubic meters of gas already received this year. Naftogaz has also rejected proposals from the Russian gas giant to re-negotiate the gas trade between the two countries.
Tymoshenko wants to restructure the control of the Ukrainian gas market and remove the middlemen from the gas trade with Russia. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko urged Tymoshenko to avoid a “gas war” with Russia and reach a deal with Gazprom this week.
If this situation sounds familiar, Gazprom completely cut gas supplies to Ukraine at the beginning of 2006 due to a similar dispute. An unintentional side effect of the 2006 cut off was a major reduction in gas supplies to other European countries. According to Gazprom, European supplies are not under serious threat this time.
The partial gas cutoff came hours after Gazprom chairman Dmitry Medvedev won Russia’s Presidential election.
